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One rationale IBM (NYSE:IBM) suffered a salary decline in the first quarter was slumping demand for its mainframe computer systems. earnings from mainframes tumbled 38% 12 months over 12 months, dragging revenue within the systems section down 9% on a currency-adjusted groundwork.
while mainframes are not as essential to IBM today as they were during the past, the hulking systems, with a large installation base and significant switching charges, are a key part of the enterprise's competitive merits. That makes the steep decline in sales look the entire extra concerning.here is general
there isn't a purpose to agonize concerning the precipitous decline in mainframe sales. IBM's mainframe revenue spike each time the enterprise launches a new mannequin -- the third quarter of 2017 marked the delivery of the newest surge in revenue with the z14 system. After four or five quarters of strong 12 months-over-12 months growth, driven by way of clients upgrading from older fashions, that growth is lapped, and earnings start to say no.
This cycle has performed out distinct times during the last decade as IBM refreshed its mainframe methods each few years. And regardless of the steep income declines IBM is now seeing, the existing cycle is the strongest in many years.
"we are seven quarters into the z14 cycle and the software continues to tune forward of the prior application. They had mighty boom in volumes or shipped MIPS, and new workload MIPS proceed to outpace their ordinary MIPS," mentioned IBM CFO James Kavanaugh during the primary-quarter salary name. (MIPS stands for million directions per second, a measure of processing energy.)
Kavanaugh introduced that the one-body version of the z14, launched closing 12 months and designed to fit into commonplace records facilities, is a growth driver for the mainframe company.
IBM more than doubled mainframe sales on a yr-over-yr foundation within the 2d quarter of 2018, so a further massive decline in income in the 2nd quarter of this yr is inevitable. The business will then begin to lap these declines in the 2d half of this 12 months.
Given the ordinary gap between mainframe launches, IBM's next-gen mainframe device likely won't arrive until someday in 2020. That ability three or 4 extra quarters of weak mainframe performance before an extra 12 months-lengthy surge in revenue.2020 is shaping up to be a big year
no longer handiest will IBM possible get a revenue enhance in 2020 thanks to the subsequent mainframe launch, however the enterprise will also add a couple of billion dollars of earnings from its acquisition of red Hat. That deal is scheduled to shut earlier than the conclusion of this yr.
purple Hat is turning out to be at a double-digit price, and its software strengthens IBM's hand as it goes after the hybrid cloud computing market. there is a mainframe connection right here, too -- red Hat offers a version of its business Linux operating device for IBM's mainframes. Kavanaugh mentioned all the way through the profits call that Linux is a key increase driver for the mainframe company.
IBM's complete earnings will likely decline this 12 months, mostly because of a significant foreign money headwind, but additionally as a result of slumping mainframe income. however next 12 months will seem to be a great deal more advantageous.
Peter Porter, previously a certified customer government at IBM‘s (NYSE: IBM) public sector company, joined Oracle (ORCL) as director of federal equipment earnings, G2Xchange and many others pronounced Monday.
He has more than 30 years of expertise earnings journey and is chargeable for main a crew of experts that offers Oracle methods to federal civilian corporations.
Porter held a 29-yr profession at IBM, the place he in the past managed the firm’s company development efforts concentrated on the U.S. Postal carrier and income of the IBM Smarter Cities portfolio.
previous in his company career, he worked in sales positions at Tektronix and Hewlett-Packard.
The branch of fitness and Human functions has issued a solicitation for a potential 5-year, …
A regularly occurring Dynamics (NYSE: GD) business unit has bought a $125M contract modification from the …
STAT stated the day before today that IBM is halting the revenue of their “Watson for Drug Discovery” computing device studying/ AI device, in response to sources in the enterprise. in accordance with STAT file, IBM is giving up its efforts to advance and flog its Drug Discovery technology due to “sluggish sales,”. but nobody looks to have advised IBM’s web site programming crew, because the pages of the product tips are still up on the IBM web site. They’re value taking a glance as to how the product has been over-promised by IBM.
apparently, IBM Watson fitness uses AI application to support groups display the connection and relationship among genes, drugs, diseases, and different entities through inspecting distinctive units of life sciences capabilities. however based on the IEEE Spectrum record, IBM’s entire foray into health care has been marked by using the widely wide-spread combination of overpromising and below-start.
despite the fact, the service isn’t completely shutting down. IBM spokesperson Ed Barbini instructed to The Register: “We are not discontinuing their Watson for Drug Discovery providing, and they continue to be committed to its persevered success for their purchasers at the moment using the expertise. we're focusing their components within Watson fitness to double down on the adjoining field of clinical development the place they see an excellent more suitable market need for their facts and AI capabilities.”
In different phrases, it seems the product won’t be bought to any new customers, despite the fact, organizations that need to continue the use of the gadget will still be supported.
“The offering is staying available on the market, and we’ll work with shoppers who wish to group with IBM in this area. however their future efforts may be greater focused on clinical trials – it’s a bigger market and more desirable use of their technology and tools.”, according to IBM
The Drug Discovery provider is made of loads of distinctive items or “modules,” equivalent to a search engine that permits chemists to crawl scientific abstracts to discover suggestions on a specific gene or chemical compound. There’s also an information community that describes relationships between medicine and ailments.
IBM’s fitness division has been crumbling for a long time. IBM Watson fitness’s Oncology AI application dished out wrong and unsafe innovations during beta checking out. And so as to add to their be concerned, in October ultimate year Deborah DiSanzo, IBM’s head of Watson health, stepped down from her position too.read subsequent
IBM CEO, Ginni Rometty, on bringing HR evolution with AI and its predictive attrition AI
IBM broadcasts the launch of Blockchain World Wire, a world blockchain network for pass-border payments
range in Faces: IBM analysis’s new dataset to assist construct facial attention techniques which are reasonable
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International Business Machines IBM is set to report first-quarter fiscal 2019 results on Apr 16. Notably, the company surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the trailing four quarters with average beat of 1.39%.
In the last reported quarter, the company delivered non-GAAP earnings of $4.87 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4.81 per share. However, earnings per share (EPS) decreased 5.9% from the year-ago quarter. The year-over-year decline in EPS can be attributed to higher tax rate.
Revenues of $21.76 billion were almost in line with the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $21.74 billion. However, the figure declined 3.5% on a year-over-year basis. At constant currency (cc), revenues dipped 1%. The year-over-year decline can primarily be attributed to currency fluctuation and headwinds from IBM Z product cycle.
Guidance & Estimates
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter is pegged at $18.65 billion, down roughly 2.2% from the year-ago quarter. Further, the consensus mark for earnings is pegged at $2.22 per share, indicating year-over-year decline of 9.4%.
IBM expects non-GAAP EPS forecast for 2019 to be at least $13.90. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at $13.91 per share, up marginally 7% year over year.
Let’s see how things are shaping up prior to this announcement.
International Business Machines Corporation Price and EPS Surprise
International Business Machines Corporation Price and EPS Surprise | International Business Machines Corporation Quote
Factors to Consider
IBM’s initiatives in blockchain, cloud and enterprise AI market through product rollouts and strategic deals bode well. Moreover, the company’s improving clout in the cloud, security and analytics remains a tailwind.
In the fourth quarter, Strategic Imperatives (cloud, analytics, mobility and security) grew 5% from the year-ago quarter to $11.5 billion.
Cloud revenues surged 6% from the year-ago quarter to $5.7 billion and 19% (excluding IBM Z product cycle impact).
Coming to Systems, the segment comprises both hardware and operating systems software revenues. Broad-based adoption of the z14 mainframe, power systems and strong flash sales remain key catalysts for the segment.
Systems revenues decreased 21% on a year-over-year basis (down 20% at cc) to $2.6 billion, primarily owing to impact of the IBM Z product cycle. Segmental revenues pertaining to Strategic Imperatives plunged 22%, while Cloud revenues declined 31%.
IBM Z revenues decreased 44% year over year. However, MIPS capacity has increased around 20%, driven by broad-based adoption of the z14 mainframe.
Cognitive Solutions’ revenues-external increased 2% year over year (on cc basis) to $5.5 billion. Revenues from Cognitive Solutions (including solutions software and transaction processing) increased primarily on account of growth in solutions software, including analytics and artificial intelligence (AI). The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the first quarter is currently pegged at $4.14 billion.
Revenues from Global Business Services-external segment were $4.3 billion, up 4% from the year-ago quarter (up 6% at cc). The year-over-year increase was primarily due to growth across all three business areas namely consulting, application management and global process services. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the first quarter is pegged at $4.23 billion.
Revenues from Technology Services & Cloud Platforms-external decreased 3% from the year-ago quarter (flat at cc) to $8.9 billion. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the first quarter is pegged at $8.27 billion.
Product Rollouts & Strategic Deals: Key Catalysts
IBM recently completed the launch of its next generation POWER9 processors for mid-range and high-end systems. These are designed for handling advanced analytics, cloud environments and data-intensive workloads in AI, HANA, and UNIX markets.
The company also introduced new offerings optimizing both hardware and software for AI. Management believes that products like PowerAI Vision and PowerAI Enterprise will help drive new customer adoption.
IBM expanded partnership with Vodafone Group. Per the deal, IBM’s advanced hybrid cloud platform, AI, and IoT capabilities will aid Vodafone Business with digital transformation initiatives.
IBM also announced that IBM Cloud will be utilized by RemoteMyApp, a game streaming startup based out of Poland. IBM Cloud will aid RemoteMyApp to expand global market reach and enhance its flagship gaming platform, Vortex.
The robust growth in cloud gaming market and increasing focus on video game streaming platforms presents significant growth opportunity for IBM.
Further, IBM cloud is witnessing increasing adoption across businesses based in Europe as evident from this deal. Notably, IBM Cloud offers local EU-based support to its clientele by which access can be confined to solely EU-based IBM employees. These factors are aiding the tech giant to expand foothold in Europe
IBM is also benefiting from notable customer wins, especially in the sports domain of late. IBM is introducing several initiatives to bolster experience of the entities involved in sports leagues, from players, coaches to fans and management.
The company’s bid to integrate AI into sports systems’ is in sync with its strategy to go beyond fan engagement to influencing players with robust strategies. These innovative solutions aided by IBM’s Watson positions the company well in gaining momentum.
IBM is also gaining momentum in blockchain technology. The traction witnessed by the company’s Watson Ads offering is bolstering the top line, in turn aiding IBM to better compete against peers.
While these developments are expected to positively impact results, IBM’s continuing investments and pricing pressure related to its legacy hardware business and ballooning debt levels remain headwinds.
What the Zacks Model Unveils
According to the Zacks model, a company with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) has a good chance of beating estimates if it also has a positive Earnings ESP. The Sell-rated stocks (Zacks Rank #4 or 5) are best avoided.
IBMhas a Zacks Rank #3 and an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
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Here are a few stocks that are worth considering as their model shows that these have the right combination of elements to deliver an earnings beat in the upcoming releases.
The Progressive Corporation PGR has an Earnings ESP of +0.09% and a Zacks Rank #2.You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
RLI Corp. RLI has an Earnings ESP of +2.56% and a Zacks Rank #2.
Netflix, Inc. NFLX has an Earnings ESP of +0.44% and a Zacks Rank #3.
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Many IT departments have implemented software solutions that go beyond simple transaction and analytical processing. These packages contain models that describe certain data behaviors, and these models consume current data to see if these patterns of data behavior exist. If so, operational systems can use this information to make decisions. A good example of this is fraud detection. IT data engineers use analytics on historical data to determine when fraud occurred, code this into a model, and deploy the model as a service. Then, any operational system can invoke the model, pass it current data and receive a model “score” that represents the probability that a transaction may be fraudulent.
The general term for these new packages is artificial intelligence (AI). They consist of a combination of search, optimization and analytics algorithms, statistical analysis techniques and template processes for ingesting data, executing these techniques and making the results available as services called models. The subset of AI that deals with model creation and implementation is sometimes called machine learning (ML).Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence
IT departments implement ML and AI solutions in the broader context of their data and processing footprint. This is usually depicted as the following four-layer hierarchy.
Layer 1: The Data.
This layer contains the data distributed across the enterprise. It includes mainframe and distributed data such as product and sales databases, transactional data and analytical data in the data warehouse and any big data applications. It also may include customer, vendor and supplier data, perhaps at remote sites, and even extends to public data such as twitter, news feeds and survey results. Another possible source of data is server performance logs that include resource usage history.
Note that these data exist across diverse hardware platforms including on-premises and cloud-based. As such, various data elements can exist in multiple forms and formats (e.g. text, ASCII, EBCDIC, UTF-8, XML, images, audio clips, etc.). In addition, at this level will exist hardware and software that manage the data, including high-speed data loaders, data purge and archive processes, publish-and-subscribe processes for data replication, as well as those for standard backup and recovery and disaster recovery planning.
Layer 2: The Analytics Engines.
In this layer exist a mixture of hardware and software that executes business analytics against the data layer. There are several common players in this space. They include:
Just as the data layer occurs across multiple hardware platforms and distributed sites, so will the analytics engines layer. The major function of this layer is to provide an optimized data access layer against the underlying data as a service for AI and operational applications.
Layer 3: The Machine Learning Platform.
IT implements machine learning software in this layer. It accesses the data through one or more of the analytics engines. It is in this layer that IBM delivers its latest offering, Watson Machine Learning for z/OS (WMLz). WMLz provides a basic machine learning workflow consisting of the following steps:
Data scientists know that one of the greatest benefits of machine learning is to use the results in operational systems; for example, having an ML model analyze financial data to determine the possibility of fraud. This means that you will achieve best performance when you deploy ML in the hardware environment where transaction processing occurs. For many large organizations this means the IBM zServer environment.
Layer 4: Machine Learning Solutions.
Now that they have the machine learning platform available as ML services, they can create combined AI/ML solutions that invoke those services. IBM has several ready-made solutions for this layer, including the following:
Let’s take a deeper dive into how Watson Machine Learning on Z (WMLz) works and what services it can provide.
Key Performance Indicators (KPIs). WMLz does not inherently know what performance factors are important to you. However, once these KPIs are defined (either by a user or by implementing one of the machine learning solutions noted above), WMLz can analyze KPI data to look for correlations. For example, when one KPI (say, I/O against a critical database) goes up, another KPI (say CPU usage) may go up as well. As another example, several KPIs may be behaviorally similar, so WMLz can cluster them as a group and perform further analysis across groups. WMLz can also determine KPI baseline behaviors based on time-of-day, time zone of transactions or seasonal activity.
Anomaly Detection. Once correlations are discovered, WMLz can look opposite effects and report them as anomalies. In their I/O example above, an anomaly would be reported if I/O against a critical database increased but CPU usage decreased.
Pattern Recognition. As with many machine learning engines, WMLz will look for patterns among KPIs and data identifiers. For example, CPU may increase when processing certain categories of transactions.
KPI prediction. An extension of basic KPI processing, WMLz can use the past behaviors of groups of KPIs to predict the future. Consider their I/O example once again. The product may detect that certain transactions become more numerous during a particular time period, and these transactions consume significantly more CPU cycles. The product may then predict future CPU spikes.
Batch workload analysis. Many IT shops have a large contingent of batch processing that is tightly scheduled and includes job and resource dependencies. Some jobs must wait for their predecessors to complete, some use significant shared resources (such as tape drives or specialty hardware) and some are so resource-intensive that then cannot be executed at the same time. WMLz can analyze the workload data, including resource usage, and provide recommendations for balancing resources or tuning elapsed times.
MLC cost pattern analysis and cost reduction. Some IBM software license charges are billed monthly, and the license amount may depend upon maximum CPU usage during peak periods. WMLz can analyze CPU usage across time, look for patterns and make predictions and recommendations for software license cost reduction.Watson Machine Learning for z/OS — Features
IBM’s Watson Machine Learning for z/OS allows IT its choice of development environments to develop models including IBM SPSS Modeler. These environments assist data scientists by using notebooks, data visualization tools and wizards to speed the development process. Several quick-start application templates are also incorporated in the toolset for common business requirements such as fraud detection, load approval and IT operational analytics. The latest version of WMLz (version 2.1.0) includes support for Ubuntu Linux on Z, java APIs, simplified Python package management and several other features.
Interested readers should reference the links below for more detailed technical information.
# # #
See all articles by Lockwood LyonREFERENCES
Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligencehttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Machine_learning
Data and AI on IBM Zhttps://www.ibm.com/analytics/z-analytics
Using Anaconda with Spark — Anaconda 2.0 documentationhttps://docs.anaconda.com/anaconda-scale/spark/
Watson Machine Learning - Overviewhttps://www.ibm.com/cloud/machine-learning
Watson Machine Learning - Resourceshttps://www.ibm.com/cloud/machine-learning/resources
Get ready for some major changes at IBM.
Following first-quarter financial results that IBM executives acknowledged were "disappointing," CFO Mark Loughridge, in an earnings call with financial analysts Thursday, indicated that employee layoffs and divestiture of poorly performing businesses are planned for the current quarter.
For the first fiscal 2013 quarter ended March 31, IBM reported revenue of $23.4 billion, down 5 percent from $24.7 billion in last year's first quarter. Net income was $3.0 billion, down 1 percent from $3.1 billion one year earlier.
"There are parts of their business that are in transition or have been underperforming, like elements of their Power, [System] x and storage product lines that showed disappointing performance in the first quarter," Loughridge said. "Here we're going to take substantial actions," he said, without offering details.
[Related: IBM In Talks To Sell x86 Server Business To Lenovo ]
Thursday CRN reported that IBM is in active negotiations to sell its x86 server hardware business and Lenovo is the top candidate to buy it.
Asked about that report by an analyst, Loughridge said: "I'm obviously not going to comment on rumors."
But at several points during the earnings call the CFO referred to coming "divestitures" and made it clear that "workforce rebalancing," which is IBM-speak for layoffs, is planned for the current quarter. He said one-time charges for costs associated with those cutbacks will be taken against second-quarter results.
Last year, IBM spread out staff cutbacks throughout the year, Loughridge said. "But given their first-quarter performance, they now expect to take the bulk of their workforce balancing actions for the year in the second quarter." He said those cutbacks -- the company does not yet have a "specific approved action," he said -- and the resulting charges will have an impact on second-quarter earnings.
Loughridge blamed IBM's quarterly results on the company's inability to close a number of big contracts -- valued in total around $400 million -- for IBM software products and mainframe systems.
"This quarter certainly didn't close the way it started," the CFO said. "We had solid profit performance in January, but as the quarter ended hundreds of millions of dollars of very profitable software and System z mainframe deals fell short of the goal line. This impacted the first-quarter close. But the rollover of these deals positions us for a strong start in their software and mainframe business in the second quarter."
Loughridge blamed the problems on "a shortfall in sales execution in their software and mainframe businesses." He said the company had taken steps to improve that execution, but didn't offer details.
NEXT: Hardware Sales Slump While Software Sales Remain Flat
IBM took a big hit in hardware sales: Revenue from its Systems and Technology segment dropped more than 17 percent to $3.1 billion from $3.7 billion in the first quarter of last year. Systems and Technology reported a pre-tax loss of $0.3 billion.
Total systems sales were down 13 percent for the quarter. Hit hardest were sales of the company's Power Systems, which plunged 32 percent year-over-year. Revenue from System x sales were down 9 percent. And sales of storage systems decreased 11 percent.
"Weakness in Power, System x and storage resulted in overall declines," Loughridge said. "For Systems and Technology, this is not the quarter they expected."
Later in the call he said IBM would more aggressively expand its line of Power servers for the Linux market.
Loughridge said IBM has sold more than 4,000 units of the "PureSystems" servers it launched one year ago. But, he provided no revenue figures for those sales.
The only real bright spot in Systems and Technology was sales of IBM's System z mainframes. Despite the delayed contracts, revenue from mainframe sales grew 7 percent in the quarter, and the company said total delivery of System z computing power, measured in millions of instructions per second (MIPS) were up 27 percent.
Revenue from IBM's software business was flat year-over-year at $5.6 billion.
Sales of key products including WebSphere, Information Management, Tivoli, Social Workforce Solutions, formerly Lotus software, and Rational were $3.5 billion. WebSphere product sales were up 6 percent, Tivoli product sales grew 1 percent, and Social Workforce Solutions sales increased 8 percent.
But, Information Management product sales declined 2 percent in the quarter and Rational software sales dropped 2 percent. Operating systems revenue was down 2 percent to $578 million.
Loughridge also said the 1 percent increase in revenue from growth markets such as China and Russia was "disappointing." He said that growth should be in the mid-single digits. On the positive side, the CFO said revenue from cloud computing initiatives grew 70 percent in the quarter, while "smarter planet"-related sales were up 25 percent and business analytics sales grew 7 percent.
On the services side, IBM said revenue from the company's Global Technology Services was down 4 percent year-over-year to $9.6 billion. Global Business Services revenue was down 3 percent in the quarter to $4.5 billion. Loughridge said IBM's services businesses "performed as expected," and the company closed 22 service contracts each valued at $100 million or more.
Revenue from IBM Global Financing was up 2 percent to $499 million.
PUBLISHED APRIL 18, 2013
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