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000-973 exam Dumps Source : Power Systems Sales for the IBM I Operating System
Test Code : 000-973
Test Name : Power Systems Sales for the IBM I Operating System
Vendor Name : IBM
: 180 Real Questions
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IBM’s cloud will soon presents more IaaS and AI capabilities powered by way of its own POWER9 CPUs.
huge Blue has previously offered vigor CPUs for infrastructure-as-a-carrier, but restricted their availability to only 1 information center in Dallas, Texas, and concentrated on a rent-a-server choice, plus an influence-powered AI provider offered through accomplice Nimbix.
but on the business’s suppose conference in San Francisco closing week, IBM introduced the debut of its POWER9 platform with a brand new “virtual Server on IBM Cloud—accessible in select IBM Cloud records facilities [northern] spring 2019” plus the intention to run its own energy AI provider.
As IBM had in the past most effective offered vigor in its Dallas information centres and never flagged the use of others, iTnews inquired which facts centers would get the brand new offering and became instructed the platform will land “in Dallas and Washington information centres and then increasing to Europe and Asia later this yr.”
“The time body for international roll out is being finalized and they will be working to free up greater broadly later this yr (2nd half of the year).”
This news could be welcome by way of clients of vigour methods. IBM continues to adapt the platform and wins greenfield revenue for vigour, which has some merits over x86 in some roles. however the bulk of vigour clients run legacy applications and have just huge Blue to deal with. Third-birthday party clouds have shown little activity in vigour-as-a-carrier, leaving such clients with few alternatives apart from trying to negotiate tough on whatever expenses IBM presents.
IBM expanding the footprint of its power-as-a-carrier footprint will for this reason be very welcome news, as it represents a cloudy opex alternative IBM has prior to now now not provided.
news that “The IBM Cloud and IBM vigour methods groups are working hand-in-hand to deploy the uncooked performance of POWER9-based digital servers with NVIDIA V100 GPUs on Linux for machine getting to know and artificial intelligence workloads” is also interesting. Teaming with NVIDIA suggests IBM has taken word of specialist AI clouds from the likes of AWS, Google and Microsoft, and determined it needs a personalized offering too.
these days precise-time database company ScyllaDB announced a brand new Scylla enterprise unencumber with optimizations for IBM power equipment Servers with the IBM POWER9 multi-core architecture. by way of combining Scylla’s particularly performant, shut-to-the-hardware design with next-technology IBM power gadget Servers, companies can attain new tiers of efficiency whereas additionally reducing the footprint, charge and complexity of their systems.
ScyllaDB has designed a powerful dispensed database that extends the efficiency benefits we’ve introduced with their multi-core POWER9 processors,” talked about Tim Vincent, IBM Fellow and vp of IBM Cognitive techniques. “The aggregate of the Scylla NoSQL database and their energy device Servers permits their shared shoppers to scale up their methods rather than continuously scaling out, creating new opportunities for statistics core consolidation and value efficiency.”
This integration builds upon a multi-faceted relationship between ScyllaDB and IBM. In 2016, IBM Compose begun proposing Scylla as part of their database-as-a-provider providing. The collaboration has since grown to consist of additional IBM divisions, together with IBM methods (both IBM vigour methods and Z systems), IBM Cloud (including IBM Graph as a provider) and IBM’s interior use of Scylla to energy the IBM Cloud carrier Catalog.
Scylla is an open supply drop-in alternative for Apache Cassandra. It can provide scale-up performance of 1,000,000 IOPS per node, scales out to hundreds of nodes, and at all times achieves a ninety nine% tail latency of under 1 millisecond. Scylla’s pioneering shard-per-core implementation, asynchronous architecture and auto-tuning capabilities permit corporations to automatically leverage the full benefits of the multi-core POWER9 chip.
IBM power systems servers are designed for mission-critical purposes and rising Cognitive period workloads together with synthetic intelligence, computing device learning, deep getting to know, superior analytics and excessive-efficiency computing. whether deployed in a personal, public or hybrid cloud, vigour system Servers are able to performing tens of millions of I/O operations per 2nd. as a result of Scylla operates asynchronously, it is capable of take full competencies of the pace of the POWER9 processor, riding both I/O and CPU processing in a method that scales linearly with the variety of cores on the CPU.
we are excited with the aid of the various advancements IBM has made with its energy equipment Servers,” stated Dor Laor, CEO of ScyllaDB. “As facts volumes proceed to raise, companies deserve to procedure more advantageous workloads yet also steer clear of introducing more complexity into their methods. The aggregate of Scylla and IBM POWER9 supplies unheard of efficiency, scale, density and effectivity whereas significantly simplifying the executive burden of big facts methods.”
Scylla database variations with guide for IBM vigour techniques can be found for down load from the ScyllaDB web site.
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February eleven, 2019 Timothy Prickett Morgan
If nothing else, the IBM i platform has exhibited staggering durability. One might even say legendary sturdiness, if you want to take its historical past all of the method back to the equipment/3 minicomputer from 1969. here's the true beginning aspect within the AS/400 family tree and here is when large Blue, for very sound felony and technical and advertising reasons, decided to fork its items to handle the exciting needs of large agencies (with the equipment/360 mainframe and its observe-ons) and small and medium organizations (beginning with the system/three and relocating on throughout the equipment/34, gadget/32, system/38, and device/36 within the Seventies and early Nineteen Eighties and passing during the AS/four hundred, AS/400e, iSeries, gadget i, and then IBM i on power programs systems.
It has been an extended run certainly, and many purchasers who have invested within the platform begun means returned then and there with the early models of RPG and moved their purposes ahead and changed them as their companies developed and the depth and breadth of company computing modified, relocating on up through RPG II, RPG III, RPG IV, ILE RPG, and now RPG free form. Being on this platform for even three a long time makes you a relative newcomer.
there is a longer run forward, since they agree with that the businesses that are still running IBM i programs are the real diehards, those who have no intention of leaving the platform and that, at the least in line with the survey information we've been privy too, are desiring to proceed investing in, or even expand their investments in, the IBM i platform.
thus far, they aren't in a recession and heaven willing there aren't one, so the priorities that IBM i retail outlets have don't seem to be the ones that that they had a decade in the past all through the top of the awesome Recession. returned then, as turned into the case in very nearly all IT organizations, IBM i stores had been hunkering down and have been attempting to reduce prices in all methods feasible, together with deferring system improvements and migrations as well as chopping lower back on other projects. most effective 29 p.c of the 750 IBM i stores that participated in the 2019 IBM i market Survey, which HelpSystems did again in October 2018, had been concerned about decreasing IT spending. this is a remarkably low degree, and i consider is indicative of how especially powerful the economic system is – excepting one of the fits and begins they noticed at the conclusion of 2018 and right here in early 2019 that make us fearful and will beginning placing pressure on things. listed here are the appropriate considerations as culled from the survey:
coping with the increase in statistics and in deciding the analytics to chunk on that statistics ranked a little bit higher on the 2019 IBM i marketplace Survey than did cutting back expenses, and that i think over the lengthy haul these concerns will become greater essential than modernizing purposes and coping with the IBM i competencies shortages which are a perennial worry. each of these considerations are being solved as new programmers and new equipment to make new interfaces to database applications are getting extra ordinary and as applied sciences similar to free form RPG, which looks extra like Java, Python, and Hypertext Preprocessor, are being more largely deployed and, importantly, may also be picked up extra at once by using programmers experienced with these other languages.
Given the character of the consumer base, it appears unlikely to me that protection and excessive availability will no longer continue to be basic concerns, besides the fact that children that the IBM i platform is among the most at ease structures on the planet (and not just since it is imprecise, but since it is really complicated to hack) and it has quite a number high availability and disaster healing equipment (from IBM, Syncsort, Maxava, and HelpSystems) available for those that need to double up their techniques and offer protection to their purposes and data. The bar is regularly higher than fundamental backup and recovery for a lot of IBM i shops within the banking, assurance, manufacturing, and distribution industries that dominate the platform. These businesses can’t have security breaches, and they can’t have downtime.
there's a amazing quantity of stability within the IBM i consumer base that they feel, at this factor, is reflective in the steadiness of the IBM i platform and large Blue’s personal belief that it needs a suit IBM i platform to have an average suit power systems business. all of us comprehend that the vigour techniques hardware company has just grew to become in 5 quarters of income growth – whatever they mentioned currently in establishing their personal profits mannequin for the power techniques enterprise – however what they didn't understand, and what you should know, is that within the 2nd and third quarters of 2018, the IBM i element of the business grew drastically faster than the general power programs enterprise, and the only motive that this didn't turn up in the ultimate quarter of 2018 is that revenue of IBM i equipment in this autumn 2017 changed into reasonably strong and represented a very difficult compare. The element is, the IBM i business has been elevating the vigour systems class common. (These pointers concerning the IBM i company come compliments of Steve Sibley, vice president and offering supervisor of Cognitive systems at IBM.)
IBM’s personal financial balance of the power platform – which has been bolstered by means of a circulation into Linux clusters for analytics and high efficiency computing simulation and modeling as well as via the adoption of the HANA in-memory database through SAP customers on big iron machines including Power8 and now Power9 methods – helps IBM i purchasers feel extra assured in investing within the current IBM i platform. The recent evidence from a number of diverse surveys, not just the one achieved through HelpSystems each year, suggests that agencies are by and big either carrying on with to invest in the platform and even in some instances are planning to boost their spending on the IBM i platform in 2019.
As that you can see, the pattern of funding plans for the IBM i platform, as proven in the chart above, has no longer changed very plenty at all during the past 4 years. it's a remarkably stable pattern with however a little wiggling here and there that may also no longer even be statistically giant. simply below 1 / 4 of IBM i shops have mentioned in the past four years that they plan to boost their funding in the platform in every 12 months, and just below half say that they are conserving constant. This does not suggest that the same organizations, yr after 12 months, are investing extra and different organizations are staying pat, 12 months after 12 months. it's way more possible that every handful of years – greater like four or five – customers improve their methods and expand their capacity, and that they then take a seat tight. The wonder is that the cut up isn’t showing some distance fewer organizations investing and far greater sitting tight. That greater than a tenth of the retail outlets don’t comprehend what their plan is as each and every prior yr comes to an in depth is slightly disturbing, but it surely is honest and suggests that a significant portion of shops produce other priorities apart from hardware and operating gadget improvements. we've pointed out this before and they are able to say it once more: They think that the individuals who respond to surveys and read weekly publications focused on the IBM i platform are probably the most active retail outlets – the ones more likely to reside fairly present on hardware and application. So the pace of adoption for brand spanking new applied sciences, and the rate of funding, should be greater than within the precise base, a great deal of which does not exchange a lot in any respect.
So if they had to regulate this facts to take on the entire base, there could be far fewer websites that are investing greater funds, way more groups that are sitting tight, and perhaps fewer sites which are taking into account moving off the IBM i platform. I consider the distribution of statistics is doubtless something like 10 p.c of outlets have no idea what they are doing investment smart with IBM this year, 5 % are considering moving some or all of their purposes to one other platform, possibly 10 percent are investing extra this 12 months, and the last 75 % are sitting tight. here is just a bet, of path. so far as they can tell, the rate of attrition – how many websites they really lose every yr – only a tad over 1 p.c. So the price of move of purposes off the platform, or incidences of unplugging IBM i databases and functions, can also no longer be any place close as high within the usual base because the statistics above suggests. what's alarming, most likely, is that the rate of moving some or all purposes off the platform is balanced in opposition t people that say they'll enhance investments. most likely these are hopeful survey takers, and those that suppose it is easy to stream discover it is not and those who think they'll discover the funds to make investments will not.
What they do know is that if the cost of application attrition turned into anywhere near as excessive as these surveys indicate, then the IBM i company would not be transforming into, however shrinking. And they are aware of it isn't shrinking, so they consider there's a disconnect between planning and reality, both on the upside and the draw back.
if you drill down into the facts for the 2019 IBM i industry Survey, there have been 13 % of retailers that spoke of they'd be moving some purposes to a brand new platform, and one more 9 % that observed they had been going to flow all of their applications off IBM i. (This quantity is in line with the contemporary ALL400s survey executed by way of John Rockwell.)
Anyway, good luck with that.
Porting functions from one platform to a further, of purchasing a brand new suite on that new platform, is an incredibly difficult project. It isn't like attempting to trade a tire while using down the highway, as is a standard metaphor, but somewhat like making an attempt to take the tire off one vehicle moving down the dual carriageway and installation it on an additional vehicle using beside it within the adjoining lane devoid of crashing either car or smashing into any person else on the highway. Optimism abounds, but when push comes to shove, very few businesses try this sort of maneuver, and once they do, it is always as a result of there's a company mandate, greater times than now not led to through a merger or acquisition, that pits any other platform in opposition t IBM i operating on vigor systems. organizations that say they're making such a flow off IBM i are sanguine for his or her personal personal factors, most likely, but they don't seem to be always realistic about how lengthy it may take, what disruption it will charge, and what surest benefit, if any, might be realized.
in case you do the maths on the chart above, eight-tenths of the bottom has no conception how long a movement will take, another 1.7 p.c thinks it'll take more than 5 years, and three % say it will take between two years and five years. simplest three.4 p.c of the entire base say they can do it in below two years. They consider all of these numbers are optimistic, and the companies who may effortlessly leave OS/400 and IBM i already did a very long time in the past and people that are stay have a tougher time, now not an easier time, moving. If this have been not authentic, the IBM i base would be a hell of an awful lot smaller than the one hundred twenty,000 consumers they suppose are available, in accordance with what huge Blue has told us in the past. here's the difference between fear or power or culture and the reality of making an attempt to flow a enterprise off one platform and onto yet another. These moves are always a great deal harder than they appear on the entrance end, and they suspect many of the advantages also don’t materialize for people that do jump systems.
at the ordinary attrition price advised through this survey facts – 9 % move off the platform in somewhere between one year and more than 5 years, with most businesses now not being capable of see more than 5 years into the long run it truly is a neat trick – the installed base would reduce dramatically. it's difficult to assert how a long way as a result of the big selection of timeframes within the survey. If it become 9 p.c of the base within two years – name it four.5 percent of the bottom per year – then within a decade the standard base would decrease from a hundred and twenty,000 IBM i websites worldwide right down to about 72,000. this might dramatic indeed. but at a 1 % attrition price per yr, the base is still at 107,500 exciting consumers (no longer websites and never put in machines, each of which might be larger) with the aid of 2029. They consider there is every possibility that the attrition cost will definitely sluggish and drop underneath 1 % as IBM demonstrates dedication to the vigor methods platform and its IBM i working equipment. There are all the time some new customers being brought in new markets, to make sure, however the bleed rate (even though it's small) remains probably an order of magnitude larger than the feed fee.
when they do consider about making the flow, IBM i stores understand exactly where they wish to go, and this answer has been step by step changing through the years: Linux as an alternative to IBM i is on the rise and home windows Server as an choice is on the wane. within the latest survey, 52 percent of the companies that talked about they have been moving all or a few of their purposes to a further platform noted they have been making a choice on windows Server, while 34 p.c chose Linux. This displays the relative recognition of home windows Server and Linux in the datacenters of the world at big, and may be tipped simply a bit more heavily against Linux in comparison to the leisure of the realm. interestingly, 10 % of these polled who mentioned they have been relocating were looking at AIX platforms, and an additional 4 percent had been going upscale to device z mainframes – as not likely as this may also seem to be. structures are likely to roll downhill; they do not constantly defy gravity like that.
The thing about such surveys is that they display intent, now not motion. They frequently intend to do much more than they truly can accomplish, and relocating platforms after spending a long time of increase expertise is not always a really sensible flow until the platform is in precise drawback – just like the Itanium systems from Hewlett Packard business operating OpenVMS or HP-UX or the HP 3000s running MPE or the Sparc systems from Oracle operating Solaris. These had been once extraordinary platforms with large installed bases and tremendous earnings streams, but now, IBM is the closing of those Unix and proprietary systems with its power techniques line. And it is by way of a long way the biggest and for sure the only 1 displaying any increase.linked studies
The IBM i Base Did certainly flow On Up
The IBM i Base Is able to move On Up
investment And Integration indicators For IBM i
safety still Dominates IBM i discussion, HelpSystems’ 2018 Survey exhibits
The IBM i Base no longer As Jumpy because it Has Been
The Feeds And Speeds Of The IBM i Base
IBM i Priorities For 2017: Pivot To protection
IBM i developments, issues, And Observations
IBM i Survey gets more advantageous As Numbers grow
the place Do those IBM i Machines Work?
finding IBM i: A game Of 40 Questions
it is time to tell Us What you are up to
IBM i market Survey: The significance Of Being Earnest
What’s Up within the IBM i marketplace?
IBM i market Survey Fills in the Blanks
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February 11, 2019 Timothy Prickett Morgan
If nothing else, the IBM i platform has exhibited extraordinary longevity. One might even say legendary longevity, if you want to take its history all the way back to the System/3 minicomputer from 1969. This is the real starting point in the AS/400 family tree and this is when Big Blue, for very sound legal and technical and marketing reasons, decided to fork its products to address the unique needs of large enterprises (with the System/360 mainframe and its follow-ons) and small and medium businesses (starting with the System/3 and moving on through the System/34, System/32, System/38, and System/36 in the 1970s and early 1980s and passing through the AS/400, AS/400e, iSeries, System i, and then IBM i on Power Systems platforms.
It has been a long run indeed, and many customers who have invested in the platform started way back then and there with the early versions of RPG and moved their applications forward and changed them as their businesses evolved and the depth and breadth of corporate computing changed, moving on up through RPG II, RPG III, RPG IV, ILE RPG, and now RPG free form. Being on this platform for even three decades makes you a relative newcomer.
There is a longer run ahead, since they believe that the companies that are still running IBM i systems are the true diehards, the ones who have no intention of leaving the platform and that, at least according to the survey data they have been privy too, are intending to continue investing in, or even expand their investments in, the IBM i platform.
Thus far, they are not in a recession and heaven willing there will not be one, so the priorities that IBM i shops have are not the ones that they had a decade ago during the height of the Great Recession. Back then, as was the case in just about all IT organizations, IBM i shops were hunkering down and were trying to cut costs in all ways possible, including deferring system upgrades and migrations as well as cutting back on other projects. Only 29 percent of the 750 IBM i shops that participated in the 2019 IBM i Marketplace Survey, which HelpSystems did back in October 2018, were concerned about reducing IT spending. This is a remarkably low level, and I think is indicative of how relatively strong the economy is – excepting some of the fits and starts they saw at the end of 2018 and here in early 2019 that make us nervous and could start putting pressure on things. Here are the top concerns as culled from the survey:
Dealing with the growth in data and in figuring out the analytics to chew on that data ranked a little bit higher on the 2019 IBM i Marketplace Survey than did reducing costs, and I think over the long haul these issues will become more important than modernizing applications and dealing with the IBM i skills shortages that are a perennial worry. Both of these issues are being solved as new programmers and new tools to make new interfaces to database applications are becoming more common and as technologies such as free form RPG, which looks more like Java, Python, and PHP, are being more widely deployed and, importantly, can be picked up more quickly by programmers experienced with these other languages.
Given the nature of the customer base, it seems unlikely to me that security and high availability will not continue to be primary concerns, despite the fact that the IBM i platform is among the most secure platforms on the planet (and not just because it is obscure, but because it is exceedingly difficult to hack) and it has a range of high availability and disaster recovery tools (from IBM, Syncsort, Maxava, and HelpSystems) available for those who want to double up their systems and protect their applications and data. The bar is often higher than simple backup and recovery for many IBM i shops in the banking, insurance, manufacturing, and distribution industries that dominate the platform. These companies can’t have security breaches, and they can’t have downtime.
There is a remarkable amount of stability in the IBM i customer base that they think, at this point, is reflective in the stability of the IBM i platform and Big Blue’s own belief that it needs a healthy IBM i platform to have an overall healthy Power Systems business. They all know that the Power Systems hardware business has just turned in five quarters of revenue growth – something they discussed recently in developing their own revenue model for the Power Systems business – but what they did not know, and what you should know, is that in the second and third quarters of 2018, the IBM i portion of the business grew significantly faster than the overall Power Systems business, and the only reason that this did not happen in the final quarter of 2018 is that sales of IBM i machinery in Q4 2017 was quite strong and represented a very tough compare. The point is, the IBM i business has been raising the Power Systems class average. (These hints about the IBM i business come compliments of Steve Sibley, vice president and offering manager of Cognitive Systems at IBM.)
IBM’s own financial stability of the Power platform – which has been bolstered by a move into Linux clusters for analytics and high performance computing simulation and modeling as well as by the adoption of the HANA in-memory database by SAP customers on big iron machines including Power8 and now Power9 systems – helps IBM i customers feel more confident in investing in the current IBM i platform. The recent evidence from several different surveys, not just the one done by HelpSystems every year, suggests that companies are by and large either continuing to invest in the platform or even in some cases are planning to increase their spending on the IBM i platform in 2019.
As you can see, the pattern of investment plans for the IBM i platform, as shown in the chart above, has not changed very much at all in the past four years. It is a remarkably stable pattern with but a little wiggling here and there that may not even be statistically significant. Just under a quarter of IBM i shops have reported in the past four years that they plan to increase their investment in the platform in each year, and just under half say that they are holding steady. This does not mean that the same companies, year after year, are investing more and other companies are staying pat, year after year. It is far more likely that every handful of years – more like four or five – customers upgrade their systems and expand their capacity, and they then sit tight. The wonder is that the split isn’t showing far fewer companies investing and far more sitting tight. That more than a tenth of the shops don’t know what their plan is as each prior year comes to a close is a bit disturbing, but it is honest and shows that a significant portion of shops have other priorities aside from hardware and operating system upgrades. They have said this before and they will say it again: They think that the people who respond to surveys and read weekly publications focused on the IBM i platform are the most active shops – the ones more likely to stay relatively current on hardware and software. So the pace of adoption for new technologies, and the rate of investment, should be higher than in the actual base, much of which does not change much at all.
So if they had to adjust this data to take on the whole base, there might be far fewer sites that are investing more money, far more companies that are sitting tight, and maybe fewer sites that are contemplating moving off the IBM i platform. I think the distribution of data is probably something like 10 percent of shops have no idea what they are doing investment wise with IBM this year, 5 percent are thinking about moving some or all of their applications to another platform, maybe 10 percent are investing more this year, and the remaining 75 percent are sitting tight. This is just a guess, of course. As far as they can tell, the rate of attrition – how many sites they actually lose each year – just a tad over 1 percent. So the rate of movement of applications off the platform, or incidences of unplugging IBM i databases and applications, may not be anywhere near as high in the overall base as the data above suggests. What is alarming, perhaps, is that the rate of moving some or all applications off the platform is balanced against those who say they will increase investments. Perhaps these are hopeful survey takers, and those who think it is easy to move find it is not and those who think they will find the money to invest will not.
What they do know is that if the rate of application attrition was anywhere near as high as these surveys suggest, then the IBM i business would not be growing, but shrinking. And they know it is not shrinking, so they think there is a disconnect between planning and reality, both on the upside and the downside.
If you drill down into the data for the 2019 IBM i Marketplace Survey, there were 13 percent of shops that said they would be moving some applications to a new platform, and another 9 percent that said they were going to move all of their applications off IBM i. (This number is consistent with the recent ALL400s survey done by John Rockwell.)
Anyway, good luck with that.
Porting applications from one platform to another, of buying a new suite on that new platform, is an exceedingly difficult task. It is not like trying to change a tire while driving down the road, as is a common metaphor, but rather like trying to take the tire off one car moving down the highway and installing it on another car driving beside it in the adjacent lane without crashing either car or smashing into anyone else on the road. Optimism abounds, but when push comes to shove, very few companies try such a maneuver, and when they do, it is usually because there is a corporate mandate, more times than not caused by a merger or acquisition, that pits some other platform against IBM i running on Power Systems. Companies that say they are making such a move off IBM i are sanguine for their own personal reasons, perhaps, but they are not necessarily realistic about how long it might take, what disruption it will cost, and what ultimate benefit, if any, will be realized.
If you do the math on the chart above, eight-tenths of the base has no idea how long a move will take, another 1.7 percent thinks it will take more than five years, and 3 percent say it will take between two years and five years. Only 3.4 percent of the total base say they can do it in under two years. They think all of these numbers are optimistic, and the companies who could easily leave OS/400 and IBM i already did a long time ago and those that are remain have a harder time, not an easier time, moving. If this were not true, the IBM i base would be a hell of a lot smaller than the 120,000 customers they think are out there, based on what Big Blue has told us in the past. This is the difference between fear or pressure or culture and the reality of trying to move a business off one platform and onto another. These moves are always a lot harder than they seem on the front end, and they suspect many of the benefits also don’t materialize for those who do jump platforms.
At the average attrition rate suggested by this survey data – 9 percent move off the platform in somewhere between one year and more than five years, with most companies not being able to see more than five years into the future that is a neat trick – the installed base would shrink dramatically. It is tough to say how far because of the wide range of timeframes in the survey. If it was 9 percent of the base within two years – call it 4.5 percent of the base per year – then within a decade the overall base would shrink from 120,000 IBM i sites worldwide down to about 72,000. This would dramatic indeed. But at a 1 percent attrition rate per year, the base is still at 107,500 unique customers (not sites and not installed machines, both of which are larger) by 2029. They think there is every chance that the attrition rate will actually slow and drop underneath 1 percent as IBM demonstrates commitment to the Power Systems platform and its IBM i operating system. There are always some new customers being added in new markets, to be sure, but the bleed rate (even if it is small) is still probably an order of magnitude larger than the feed rate.
When they do think about making the move, IBM i shops know exactly where they want to go, and this answer has been gradually changing over the years: Linux as an alternative to IBM i is on the rise and Windows Server as an alternative is on the wane. In the latest survey, 52 percent of the companies that said they were moving all or some of their applications to another platform said they were choosing Windows Server, while 34 percent chose Linux. This reflects the relative popularity of Windows Server and Linux in the datacenters of the world at large, and may be tipped just a little more heavily towards Linux compared to the rest of the world. Interestingly, 10 percent of those polled who said they were moving were looking at AIX platforms, and another 4 percent were going upscale to System z mainframes – as unlikely as this may seem. Platforms tend to roll downhill; they do not usually defy gravity like that.
The thing about such surveys is that they show intent, not action. They often intend to do a lot more than they actually can accomplish, and moving platforms after spending decades of building up expertise is not usually a very smart move unless the platform is in real trouble – like the Itanium systems from Hewlett Packard Enterprise running OpenVMS or HP-UX or the HP 3000s running MPE or the Sparc systems from Oracle running Solaris. These were once great platforms with huge installed bases and tremendous revenue streams, but now, IBM is the last of these Unix and proprietary platforms with its Power Systems line. And it is by far the biggest and for sure the only one showing any growth.RELATED STORIES
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In the 1990s and well into the 2000s, if you had mission-critical applications that required zero downtime, resiliency, failover and high performance, but didn’t want a mainframe, Unix was your go-to solution.
If your database, ERP, HR, payroll, accounting, and other line-of-business apps weren’t run on a mainframe, chances are they ran on Unix systems from four dominant vendors: Sun Microsystems, HP, IBM and SGI. Each had its own flavor of Unix and its own custom RISC processor. Servers running an x86 chip were at best used for file and print or maybe low-end departmental servers.
Today it’s a x86 and Linux world, with some Windows Server presence. Virtually every supercomputer on the Top 500 list runs some flavor of Linux and an x86 processor. SGI is long gone. Sun lived on for a while through Oracle, but in 2018 Oracle finally gave up. HP Enterprise only ships a few Unix servers a year, primarily as upgrades to existing customers with old systems. Only IBM is still in the game, delivering new systems and advances in its AIX operating system.
We aren’t going to dwell on how they got here. Instead, this is a look at where commercial Unix is going, and how and when it will eventually die. (Note: We're specifically talking about the decline of commercial Unix. Still flourishing are the free and open-source variants such as FreeBSD, which was born out of the Berkeley Software Development (BSD) project at the University of California, Berkeley, and GNU.)Unix's slow decline
Unix’s decline is “more of an artifact of the lack of marketing appeal than it is the lack of any presence,” says Joshua Greenbaum, principal analyst with Enterprise Applications Consulting. “No one markets Unix any more, it’s kind of a dead term. It’s still around, it’s just not built around anyone’s strategy for high-end innovation. There is no future, and it’s not because there’s anything innately wrong with it, it’s just that anything innovative is going to the cloud.”
“The UNIX market is in inexorable decline,” says Daniel Bowers, research director for infrastructure and operations at Gartner. “Only 1 in 85 servers deployed this year uses Solaris, HP-UX, or AIX. Most applications on Unix that can be easily ported to Linux or Windows have actually already been moved.”
Most of what remains on Unix today are customized, mission-critical workloads in fields such as financial services and healthcare. Because those apps are expensive and risky to migrate or rewrite, Bowers expects a long-tail decline in Unix that might last 20 years. “As a viable operating system, it’s got at least 10 years because there’s this long tail. Even 20 years from now, people will still want to run it,” he says.Gartner
Gartner tracks the decline of new Unix sales.
Gartner doesn’t track install base, just new sales, and the trend is down. In Q1 of 2014, Unix sales totaled $1.6 billion. By Q1 of 2018, sales were at $593 million. In terms of units, Unix sales are low, but they are almost always in the form of high-end, heavily decked-out servers that are much larger than your typical two-socket x86 server.IBM the last UNIX man standing
It’s remarkable how tight-lipped people are over the state of Unix. Oracle and HPE declined to comment, as did several IBM customers. IBM is still in the game, but Bowers notes, “I see IBM investing $34 billion in Red Hat, but I don’t see IBM investing $34 billion in AIX.”
Steve Sibley, vice president of cognitive systems offerings at IBM, acknowledges the obvious but says IBM will still have a substantial number of clients on AIX in ten years, with the majority of clients being large Fortune 500 clients. He adds that there will also be a stable number of midrange customers in some ways “because they don’t want to spend the investment to get off AIX.”
Rob McNelly, senior AIX solutions architect at Meridian IT, a services provider and heavy AIX user, says there is an 80/20 rule for new applications for AIX: 80% of customers don’t grow their AIX footprint, but 20% stays and expands in AIX.
“Because 20% is the larger enterprise systems, it is a very big segment. In healthcare, many stable tier 1 production environments continue to invest and enjoy the stability and security of AIX. Established and embedded ERP systems do likewise at all layers,” McNelly says.
Many new applications pursue Linux, which
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