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One reason IBM (NYSE:IBM) suffered a revenue decline in the first quarter became slumping demand for its mainframe computer systems. earnings from mainframes tumbled 38% 12 months over 12 months, dragging earnings in the methods section down 9% on a currency-adjusted basis.
while mainframes aren't as critical to IBM today as they were in the past, the hulking programs, with a big deploy base and giant switching expenses, are a key element of the business's aggressive merits. That makes the steep decline in revenue seem all the extra regarding.here's normal
there isn't any intent to agonize concerning the precipitous decline in mainframe sales. IBM's mainframe earnings spike each time the company launches a new mannequin -- the third quarter of 2017 marked the beginning of the latest surge in income with the z14 device. After four or five quarters of strong yr-over-year growth, pushed by using consumers upgrading from older models, that boom is lapped, and income start to decline.
This cycle has performed out distinct times over the last decade as IBM refreshed its mainframe programs each few years. And regardless of the steep sales declines IBM is now seeing, the existing cycle is the strongest in many years.
"we are seven quarters into the z14 cycle and the software continues to song forward of the prior software. They had strong boom in volumes or shipped MIPS, and new workload MIPS continue to outpace their commonplace MIPS," observed IBM CFO James Kavanaugh all over the first-quarter revenue call. (MIPS stands for million guidance per second, a measure of processing vigour.)
Kavanaugh delivered that the single-body edition of the z14, launched ultimate year and designed to fit into typical records centers, is a boom driver for the mainframe enterprise.
IBM greater than doubled mainframe sales on a 12 months-over-12 months foundation within the 2nd quarter of 2018, so a different big decline in income within the second quarter of this yr is inevitable. The company will then begin to lap these declines within the second half of this 12 months.
Given the typical hole between mainframe launches, IBM's subsequent-gen mainframe device likely won't arrive unless sometime in 2020. That skill three or four more quarters of vulnerable mainframe performance before a further year-lengthy surge in earnings.2020 is shaping as much as be a large yr
not best will IBM seemingly get a earnings increase in 2020 because of the next mainframe launch, but the business will also add a number of billion bucks of income from its acquisition of crimson Hat. That deal is scheduled to close earlier than the conclusion of this yr.
pink Hat is growing to be at a double-digit cost, and its application strengthens IBM's hand as it goes after the hybrid cloud computing market. there is a mainframe connection here, too -- purple Hat presents a edition of its enterprise Linux working system for IBM's mainframes. Kavanaugh stated all over the profits call that Linux is a key boom driver for the mainframe company.
IBM's complete income will likely decline this year, generally on account of a big forex headwind, however also because of slumping mainframe revenue. but next 12 months will seem a lot more suitable.
Peter Porter, formerly a licensed customer government at IBM‘s (NYSE: IBM) public sector business, joined Oracle (ORCL) as director of federal device revenue, G2Xchange and many others pronounced Monday.
He has more than 30 years of know-how earnings adventure and is liable for main a team of experts that offers Oracle programs to federal civilian companies.
Porter held a 29-12 months career at IBM, the place he up to now managed the company’s enterprise development efforts focused on the U.S. Postal service and earnings of the IBM Smarter Cities portfolio.
past in his corporate profession, he worked in income positions at Tektronix and Hewlett-Packard.
The branch of fitness and Human features has issued a solicitation for a potential five-yr, …
A familiar Dynamics (NYSE: GD) enterprise unit has received a $125M contract change from the …
STAT suggested yesterday that IBM is halting the income of their “Watson for Drug Discovery” desktop getting to know/ AI device, in line with sources in the company. according to STAT document, IBM is giving up its efforts to develop and flog its Drug Discovery technology because of “slow earnings,”. but no one looks to have informed IBM’s web page programming crew, since the pages of the product advice are nonetheless up on the IBM web site. They’re price taking a look as to how the product has been over-promised by means of IBM.
curiously, IBM Watson fitness uses AI application to help businesses show the connection and relationship amongst genes, drugs, ailments, and different entities via examining diverse sets of life sciences capabilities. but based on the IEEE Spectrum record, IBM’s whole foray into health care has been marked through the regular aggregate of overpromising and under-beginning.
however, the carrier isn’t completely shutting down. IBM spokesperson Ed Barbini told to The Register: “We don't seem to be discontinuing their Watson for Drug Discovery offering, and they continue to be dedicated to its endured success for their valued clientele presently the usage of the know-how. we're focusing their substances within Watson fitness to double down on the adjoining container of medical development the place they see an excellent enhanced market need for their facts and AI capabilities.”
In other words, it appears the product gained’t be sold to any new valued clientele, youngsters, corporations that are looking to continue using the gadget will nevertheless be supported.
“The providing is staying in the marketplace, and we’ll work with customers who want to group with IBM during this enviornment. but their future efforts might be extra concentrated on medical trials – it’s a much bigger market and stronger use of their technology and equipment.”, in accordance with IBM
The Drug Discovery service is made up of loads of distinctive items or “modules,” equivalent to a search engine that allows chemists to crawl scientific abstracts to discover counsel on a particular gene or chemical compound. There’s also a knowledge community that describes relationships between drugs and illnesses.
IBM’s fitness division has been crumbling for a while. IBM Watson fitness’s Oncology AI software dished out fallacious and dangerous strategies all through beta testing. And to add to their worry, in October remaining 12 months Deborah DiSanzo, IBM’s head of Watson health, stepped down from her position too.examine subsequent
IBM CEO, Ginni Rometty, on bringing HR evolution with AI and its predictive attrition AI
IBM broadcasts the launch of Blockchain World Wire, a global blockchain network for pass-border funds
diversity in Faces: IBM analysis’s new dataset to help build facial consciousness programs that are reasonable
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For those who know little about International Business Machines (NYSE:IBM), the company's hulking System Z mainframe computers may seem like little more than a relic. The 42% year-over-year decline in System Z sales during IBM's first quarter would appear to offer proof that the mainframe business is struggling.
But investors shouldn't worry about this mainframe sales collapse. It's happened before, and it will happen again. IBM's System Z product cycle, which sees new models introduced every few years, induces an extreme amount of sales volatility as clients rush to upgrade. While IBM doesn't report System Z sales numbers directly, the company does report year-over-year performance, and that allows us to see that the big drop in sales during the first quarter is nothing out of the ordinary.
The mainframe product cycle Despite the rise of hyperscale data centers and cloud computing, IBM's mainframe computers remain integral parts of many organizations' IT infrastructures. Visa, Wal-Mart, and Citigroup are a few examples of major corporations that continue to rely on IBM's mainframe systems. While expensive, mainframe systems are ultra-reliable, secure, and can provide meaningful cost savings for specific use cases. The z13 mainframe, launched in January 2015, can process 2.5 billion transactions each day, the equivalent of 100 Cyber Mondays, according to IBM.
The launch of the z13 last year led to a spike in mainframe sales. During the first quarter of 2015, System Z sales jumped an astonishing 130% adjusted for currency, the largest year-over-year rise in more than a decade. Sales remained brisk for a few quarters, but a steep drop during the first quarter of this year has undone much of this growth.
This is how the mainframe product cycle works: a major upgrade fuels demand as clients replace older machines, creating a few quarters of extremely strong sales. Once the initial rush is over, sales fall back to earth, only to rise again a few years later when IBM refreshes its lineup. This pattern is evident looking at the performance of the System Z business over the past decade.
In 2005 and 2006, the System z9 line of mainframes launched, propelling sales higher until the second half of 2007. The System z10 arrived in early 2008, again providing a revenue boost for a few quarters. In 2010, the first zEnterprise System launched, followed by a refresh in late 2012. In both cases, the same pattern of strong sales emerged. Lastly, the 2015 launch of the System z13 kept the trend going.
While sales of mainframe systems represent a relatively small portion of IBM's total sales, once related hardware, software, and services are included, the mainframe accounts for a major part of IBM's profits. Back in 2012, an analyst from Bernstein Research estimated that the mainframe ultimately accounted for a quarter of IBM's revenue and nearly half of its profits. IBM's business has changed since then, with the company undergoing a transformation, but the mainframe remains a key part of IBM.
The mainframe hasn't really been a growth business for IBM over the past decade, but the company has taken steps to position the systems as a viable alternative to data centers filled with x86 machines. System Z mainframes have been able to run Linux for more than a decade, but the LinuxONE, a variant supporting only Linux, was launched late last year in an effort to appeal to organizations running Linux-based systems, either on-premises or in the cloud. LinuxONE supports a long list of open source software, and it can be paid for with a pricing system based partly on usage, lowering the upfront cost of running a mainframe.
Whether IBM will be able to significantly grow its mainframe business going forward is an open question. In the age of cloud computing, the systems certainly carry a stigma, viewed by many as outdated and obsolete. But the drop in mainframe sales during the first quarter is not a sign that those people are correct. Instead, it's a natural consequence of the mainframe product cycle. Investors have nothing to worry about.
IBM calls it "System z" these days. But despite years of the very best marketing efforts around the "Z" moniker, the name mainframe is here to stay.
"IBM's mainframe division keeps chugging along, picking up some new customers here and there, particularly overseas, but the vast majority of the business is working with their existing installed base," says Dan Olds, an analyst with Gabriel Consulting Group (GCG). "Mainframe sales are very cyclical, with revenue numbers rising sharply when IBM introduces a new model, then dropping down to a more or less steady state."
IBM rode this cycle in 2010, with sales up almost 70% with the introduction of new machines. In 2011, revenue dropped 31% compared to 2010, according to Olds. What's interesting, though, is that the amount of MIPS shipped in 2011 was only 4% lower than the huge number of MIPS shipped in 2010 — at the same time, IBM somehow increased mainframe profit margins.
"This tells us that there is still a sustained appetite for mainframe capacity," says Olds. "So while the mainframe isn't in the glory days, it's certainly a healthy and profitable business for IBM."
The hike in 2010 followed the introduction of the IBM zEnterprise System, which includes the zEnterprise 196 (z196), zEnterprise BladeCenter Extension (zBX) and Unified Resource Manager (URM) for allowing deployment of workloads across mainframe, POWER7 and System x servers with management as a single, virtualized system.
IT services provider BG-Phoenics in Germany was an early adopter of zEnterprise with zBx. It can run z/OS and Linux on its z196 servers, IBM AIX on Power Systems blade servers in the zBX, and both Linux and Microsoft Windows on Intel-architecture blades in the same zBX. All the hardware is monitored and controlled using URM. An additional benefit is having the application servers physically and logically close to is core DB2 databases on the z196 server.What's New
Since that 2010 release, IBM hasn't been resting on its mainframe laurels. In February 2011, it added an IBM WebSphere DataPower Integration Appliance XI50 for zEnterprise into the zBX mix. The DataPower XI50z is a workload-optimized appliance that helps data and applications on different servers to communicate regardless of the type of platform.
It does this by processing XML and Web services protocols so that data can be understood and used by all types of servers. The company makes big claims for this arrangement. "When integrated within zBX, the DataPower XI50z can offer up to 23 times better price/performance compared to competitive systems," states Michael Dickson, worldwide System z Product Offering Manager at IBM.
In July 2011, IBM introduced the IBM zEnterprise 114 (z114) mainframe server. The new server for mid-sized organizations costs 25% less than its predecessor, the System z10 BC server. IBM is projecting that workloads from 40 x86 processors running Oracle software can be consolidated onto a z114 with three processors running Linux, with a resulting drop in overall IT costs. At a starting price of under $75,000, this is IBM's lowest ever price for a mainframe server.
In October 2011, IBM announced zEnterprise support for Microsoft Windows workloads (on System x blades installed within a zBX). IBM positions this as a first-ever bringing together of the mainframe and distributed computing worlds as an integrated "system of systems."
"This offers clients a variety of money-saving benefits, such as faster and automated access to computing resources, reduced administration and lower training costs," says Dickson. "By bringing Windows and the mainframe together, IBM is helping clients to innovate more freely across multiple environments — across z/OS, Linux, AIX and now Windows."
Also in October, IBM delivered the Netezza-based IBM DB2 Analytics Accelerator data warehouse appliance into the IBM zEnterprise System portfolio for faster analytic responses. The appliance plugs into IBM DB2 for z/OS database on zEnterprise 196 or z114 and is designed to reduce response time for intensive analytics.Model Specifics
Over the last two years, no System z models have been end-of-lifed. However, the z10 EC and z10 BC will be withdrawn from marketing in June 2012. That means they will quietly fade away, although they will continue to be serviced by the company for years to come.
That will leave two mainframes the company is stressing – the 114 and the 196.
IBM zEnterprise 114
The z114 is aimed at mid-sized and growing businesses running mission-critical workloads, hosting private enterprise clouds or looking for a backup, standalone development machine. The microprocessor has a higher-frequency superscalar design (up to 14 processors running at 3.8 GHz), improved cache structure, an "out of order" execution sequence and over 100 new hardware instructions to deliver high per-thread performance for DB2, WebSphere and Linux workloads.
"The z114 offers up to an 18% performance improvement for processing traditional System z workloads over the z10 BC, and up to an additional 25% improvement for microprocessor intensive workloads using compiler enhancements," says Dickson. "Up to ten of its microprocessors can be configured as specialty engines."
These specialty engines, the System z Application Assist Processor (zAAP), the System z Integrated Information Processor (zIIP) and the Integrated Facility for Linux (IFL), are designed to integrate Java, XML and Linux applications and technologies with existing workloads, as well as to optimize system resources and reduce costs on the mainframe. For example, using a fully configured machine running Linux for System z, it is possible to create and maintain a Linux virtual server in the z114 at next to no cost ($500 per year, according to Dickson).
IBM zEnterprise 196
The z196 is IBM's premier mainframe offering. It is capable of over 50 Billion Instructions per Second (BIPS). The z196 has up to 96 cores running at 5.2 GHz, and delivering up to 40 percent improvement in performance per core and up to 60 percent increase in total capacity compared to its predecessor, the z10 EC. As many as 80 cores are configurable for specialty engines.
"The z114 is geared toward mid-sized clients or enterprises with lower capacity, memory and I/O needs while the z196 offers extreme scalability for the most demanding enterprise-class businesses," states Dickson.
Drew Robb is a Los Angeles-based freelancer specializing in all aspects of technology, engineering and renewable energy. Born and raised in Scotland, he received a degree in Geology/Geography from the University of Strathclyde, Glasgow.
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SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — International Business Machines Corp.’s quarterly profit climbed 10%, as businesses demonstrated strong demand for the company’s computer hardware, the technology giant reported Tuesday.
Armonk, N.Y.-based IBM IBM, +0.88% said its fourth-quarter profit rose to $5.3 billion, or $4.18 a share, compared to $4.8 billion, or $3.59 a share in the same period a year earlier. Revenue rose 7% to $29 billion.
Analysts had estimated IBM would earn $4.08 a share, and $28.2 billion in revenue, according to FactSet Research’s survey.
“We just delivered a great quarter to cap off a great year,” IBM Chief Financial Officer Mark Loughridge said during a conference call with analysts.
Loughridge said the quarter was the 32nd in a row to reflect earnings growth for the company.
Shares of IBM rose nearly 3% to $154.91 in after-hours trading, following the announcement.
IBM said sales of its System Z mainframe computers rose 69% in the quarter. Overall, sales of hardware, including the company’s mainframes, rose 21% to $6.3 billion.
IBM refreshed its line of System Z mainframes in September of last year.
Software sales rose 7% compared with the corresponding period last year, to $7 billion, IBM said. The company’s WebSphere, Tivoli and Rational software lines all posted double-digit percentage gains in revenue in the quarter.
Loughridge said the overall increase in software sales in the fourth quarter was double growth rate posted in the first three quarters of 2010.
Big Blue’s global tech-services revenue rose 1% to $10.2 billion in the quarter, while outsourcing signings rose 24% to $14.1 billion, the company said.
Leading up to the quarterly report, some analysts had raised concerns about the effect of increasing competition on IBM’s outsourcing business.
Loughridge said the number of outsourcing signings in the quarter was double the number posted in the prior period, reflecting “a good example of volatility” in the market.
For 2010 as a while, Loughridge said IBM bought 17 companies, generated over $16 billion in cash, and returned over $18 billion to shareholders in repurchases and dividends.
Looking to 2011 results, IBM said it expects annual earnings of “at least” $12.56 a share.
Analysts polled by FactSet have estimated the company will earn $12.63 a share in 2011.
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